A long week for David Cameron

Telegraph

David Cameron will be painfully aware that a week really is a long time in politics.

Just seven days ago, Tory insiders were talking excitedly about how well things were going for their campaign in Ealing Southall.

Tony Lit, the party's energetic 34-year-old candidate, was making all the running, while Labour were in disarray, after no fewer than five of its local councillors had defected to the Conservatives.

An upset appeared to be on the cards. By last night, Mr Cameron's hopes of a breakthrough were in tatters. Mr Lit's campaign appeared to run out of steam after it emerged he had attended a Labour fundraiser - and posed for photos with Tony Blair - only last month.

Last night he finished a distant third. The result was the same in Sedgefield in the North East, where the Tories lost second place to the Liberal Democrats.

The party's poor performance is clearly a setback for the leadership's modernising drive. But the result in Ealing Southall is also a personal blow for the Tory leader, who hand-picked the candidate and then visited the constituency five times in recent weeks to boost the campaign.

Mr Lit, meanwhile, described himself on all his leaflets, posters and even the returning officers list as belonging to "David Cameron's Conservatives." Yet despite his best efforts, the Cameron magic simply did not work.

The danger for the Tory leader is that his critics within the party will argue the disappointing results show why the party needs to change direction and embrace more traditional issues like immigration and Europe.

The gloom in the Conservative Campaign headquarters will contrast sharply with the jubilation in Number 10 and the relief that Mr Brown has not stumbled at his first electoral test.

While Labour was never in danger of losing Sedgefield, the unique mix of communities and ethnic groups in Ealing Southall made it much more difficult to predict.

While Mr Cameron tries to rally the troops, the Prime Minister will be a contented man as he welcomes his Cabinet colleagues into Chequers next Thursday for what could prove to be a pivotal meeting to map out the Government's political strategy over the coming months.

The case for pressing ahead with a snap election, perhaps as early as this Autumn, will be more compelling than ever for Mr Brown and his ministers as they discuss Labour's options.

The so-called "Brown bounce" has already seen the party building up a healthy lead in the polls - up to seven points according to two surveys at the weekend - and the success in the by-elections will reinforce the growing mood of optimism.

But a Prime Minister famed for his prudence will not rush into a decision just yet. Mr Brown will want to see several months of solid poll leads before he considers risking everything and going to the country to secure his own personal mandate from the British people. Caution will be his byword.

As a doleful Mr Cameron could tell him, a week is a long time in politics.